What if they want to wait until the Summer Olympics to start the war? That gets us to August.
If you have read any of my previous essays, you already know that I believe we are headed to war this summer during the Beijing Olympics. Between now and August Israel will invade Lebanon. It is currently training for a wider war that could involve Syria. As I have said elsewhere, the real fun of World War III begins when Israel attacks Iran using American supplied nuclear bunker buster bombs. Iran has said they will respond by launching 11,000 missiles and artillery shells against Israel and the United States forces in the Mideast in the first 60 seconds. We have 17,500 sailors and marines in the Persian Gulf whose ships will be sunk by Iran's Russian made Yakhonts and Sunburn anti-ship missiles which have ranges of 180 and 120 miles respectively. They also have rocket artillery with ranges up to 150 kilometers. Iran also has 1,000 fast rubber boats and thousands of suicide volunteers to capture our surviving sailors and marines after their ships are sunk.What if the economy totally collapses first?
Iran also controls the militias in southern Iraq and much of the Iraqi police force and military. They would be in an excellent position to cut off supplies entering Iraq from Kuwait. Of course they would also cut off all oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf and military supplies flowing in. Oil could easily hit $300 to $400. Our friends in China and Japan, could pay cash for several years in advance with the more than 2 trillion surplus dollars they are currently unable to spend. On the other hand America's balance of trade deficit could balloon by several hundred billion dollars to more than a trillion dollars a year. The dollar would become worthless. Our pensions and our pay checks wouldn't be able yo buy anything. Unemployment could easily reach the Great Depression levels of 25%.
The Bush administration has decided to pursue a strategy that is unprecedented in US history. It has decided to continue to prosecute a war that has already been lost morally, strategically, and militarily. But fighting a losing war has its costs. America is much weaker now than it was when Bush first took office in 2000; politically, economically and militarily. US power and prestige around the world will continue to deteriorate until the troops are withdrawn from Iraq. But that's unlikely to happen until all other options have been exhausted. Deteriorating economic conditions in the financial markets are putting enormous downward pressure on the dollar. The corporate bond and equities markets are in disarray; the banking system is collapsing, consumer spending is down, tax revenues are falling, and the country is headed into a painful and protracted recession. The US will leave Iraq sooner than many pundits believe, but it will not be at a time of our choosing. Rather, the conflict will end when the United States no longer has the capacity to wage war. That time is not far off.Theoretically, our own economic demise would end the Iraq Occupation and prevent the US from jumping into another elective war with Iran. At the same time, a war with Iran would cause our economic demise. So this puts a moral person in the twisted position of hoping that our economic system collapses before our insane leaders have the chance to start another war that would kill many innocent people along with our own soldiers.
It's important to note that if our leaders didn't constantly talk about and threaten war, and didn't continually display utter disregard for other people's lives, one might in good conscience hope for something less than economic collapse. But as you know, you go