Bosnia in the hot seat

Important decisions are often made in the margins.

The math is complicated with the Palestinians so far only assured of public support from six countries: Brazil, China, India, Lebanon, Russia and South Africa.
The European powers say they have not yet decided how to vote but diplomats say Britain, Colombia, France, Germany, Portugal and United States will abstain or oppose the resolution.

That leaves Bosnia, Gabon and Nigeria in the diplomatic firing line.

Bosnia, Gabon and Nigeria.

Malki is to go to Bosnia, where the country’s ethnically divided three-man presidency is split on backing the Palestinians.
Other high-level delegations are to visit Gabon and Nigeria, Palestinian officials said, even though Malki said he has assurances from the two that they will back membership.
The three kingmakers already recognize the Palestinian state, but also see the US diplomatic shadow hanging over them. "The United States has political and economic leverage," said one UN council diplomat.
Bosnian Muslim and Croat co-presidents Bakir Izetbegovic and Zeljko Komsic support the Palestinian bid, but Serb member Nebojsa Radmanovic is against. Bosnia’s UN votes are normally decided by consensus, so diplomats say the divisions and close links to the United States could force them into an abstention.
"My sympathies lie with the Palestinians and Palestine as a state. But politics is not just sympathies and private positions," Komsic told the Dnevi Avaz newspaper Friday.
There has been a Palestinian delegation in Gabon for several years but the country could abstain, a source close to the country’s presidency told AFP. Gabon will support the Palestinians or abstain, the source said.

Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Olugbenga Ashiru has signalled support for the Palestinian bid, without saying clearly how Africa’s most populous nation will vote, media reports say.

Half of Nigeria’s 150 million population is Muslim and it is a country which the United States has in the past had difficulty gaining leverage over.
Nigeria will however be in a delicate position as it chairs the Security Council for October, including the membership committee and the full meetings if a vote is held.

Let us hear from Nigeria.

Although the Obama Administration has promised a rogue veto once the voting is in favour of the Palestinians, the US and Israel have been putting enormous lobbying resources and crude pressure on the members of the UNSC, including Nigeria, to prevent the need and shame of using the veto.
At this crucial time, the Nigerian government, the Nigerian media and Nigerian people must do the right thing, we must remember the glorious roles we played in supporting the victims of the racist policy of Apartheid in South Africa, examine our conscience and do the right thing again.
This is our true nature that we must connect with in this case. There is no reason for us to behave differently now because the policy that Israel exercises in the occupied territories is similar to that of Apartheid South Africa....
Nigeria already recognises the Palestinian nation and voting against its legalization at the UN will be a direct contradiction to our foreign policy objectives in relation to the conflict, the noble role Nigeria has always played in that part of the world.
As it did during the dark era of Apartheid, Nigeria must now show its true friendship towards the oppressed and not succumb to the tremendous pressure that the US will put on the administration to vote against the bid or abstain.
Nothing will benefit NIgeria by abstaining or voting against freedom for the oppressed.
It is clear to the whole world that US is a partner-in-crime to Israel and, part and parcel of the conflict on the side of Israel.

What about Bosnia?

Bosnia has a three member presidency, as well as a foreign minister, Mr. Sven Alkalaj. Reportedly, Mr. Alkalaj, the foreign minister, is Jewish. What are the odds? There are reportedly only about 600 Jews in all of Bosnia, and one is foreign minister. Lucky lucky lucky.

Sven Alkalaj

Meanwhile, Bosnia had general elections one year ago, but the central government has still not formed due to disagreements over the cabinet makeup. Bosnia seems rather crippled at the moment, and for the foreseeable future.

A year after last October's general election, Bosnia is still without a central government, with the inability of political leaders to agree on a future cabinet hampering the bid for EU integration.
"Instead of seeking a compromise, the six parties (taking part in the negotiations) are stuck in their hardline positions," explained Srecko Latal of the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank.
Condemning the "irresponsibility" of political leaders, Latal told AFP that the absence of a new government "will cost Bosnia a lot, as this situation ruins its (international) reputation."

He noted that the country has seen its credit ratings downgraded by international financial agencies, while foreign investments in the Balkan country have fallen 75 percent since 2009.

A primarily Muslim country with a significant Catholic minority, and a Jewish foreign minister, divided and unable to form a government, with think tanks, bankers, investors, and the US breathing down its neck...and we are hoping they vote with the Palestinians in the UN Security Council. Granted, it seems unlikely.

"Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas (second from left) is welcomed by members of Bosnian Presidency, Zeljko Komsic (left), Bakir Izetbegovic (second from right), and Nebojsa Radmanovic (right) upon his arrival for bilateral talks in Sarajevo on August 15." source

Bosnian politicians are split on the Palestinian issue along the same ethnic lines as in the the case of independence for Kosovo, which Sarajevo has not recognized.
Denisa Sarajlic-Maglajlic, an analyst at the Sarajevo-based Foreign Policy Initiative, told RFE/RL on August 15 that "the problem is...that Bosnia does not have a foreign policy, does not have an agreed position about most issues. What comes out in these situations are party, ethnic, or 'entity' interests, which then influence everything."

Local media reported that the presidency's Bosnian Muslim member, Bakir Izetbegovic, and Croat member Zeljko Komsic support the Palestinian drive for statehood while their Serbian colleague, Nebojsa Radmanovic, is opposed.

The position of Muslim politicians and religious leaders reflects a high level of sympathy for the Palestinians and close ties with the Islamic world.

But Republika Srpska, which along with the Muslim-Croat Federation composes Bosnia-Herzegovina, has in recent years intensified its relations with Israel.

Pro-Israeli analysts and commentators are also often quoted in Bosnian Serb media with statements about Bosnia being a potential hotbed of Islamic radicalism.

Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik visited Israel last year and promised to promote Israeli interests in Bosnia when he had the opportunity.

In May, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman visited the Srpska capital, Banja Luka, on a private trip with a group of businessmen.

Milos Solaja, a Banja Luka-based political analyst, told RFE/RL that Bosnia would in the end probably try to follow European Union directives on the Palestinian statehood issue.

"Bosnia is in a delicate situation and there is a heavy burden on our politicians' shoulders," Solaja said. "Bosnia could stay neutral in this affair and it probbaly will in the end."

 source

Milorad Dodik, Serb nationalist leader

"Milorad Dodik told the AP Wednesday that the Bosnian Serbs are "the victims of Bosnia" and would be much better off without being part of it."

"Milorad Dodik is regarded to be in direct connection with organised crime and misuse of political power. However, due to the weaknesses of the judicial system in Bosnia and Herzegovina he has not been processed for the criminal acts since he came to power again."

Most of the leading politicians in Bosnia and Herzegovina are directly connected with or involved in crime and criminal activities. The whole state is caught in the vicious circle of politics, mafia and crime. The property records of politicians reported to the Central Election Commission (CIK) do not reflect the actual situation, since the data is adjusted and in many cases incorrect. The wealth of leading politicians such as Milorad Dodik, Haris Silajdžić and Dragan Čović is much higher than that stated in their property records, because their property is transferred to other persons, relatives, friends and bank accounts kept abroad.
The recruitment of new politicians is practically impossible in Bosnia and Herzegovina, because the political and social life is also trapped to the vicious circle of politics, mafia and crime. Thus, new politicians may only enter the sphere if approved by the current political elites.
Connections between crime and politics were created already during the period when Bosnia and Herzegovina was gaining independence, because the leading politicians at that time needed the services of criminal structures. Since then those connections became inseparable and can be defined as "criminalisation of politics and politisation of criminal".
Analysts have pointed to the very difficult situation and at the same time believe that no mass protests and demonstrations will arise in Bosnia and Herzegovina, because the leading structures have gained control over trade unions, military veteran organisations, media, NGOs and other organisations.

Republic of Srpska Coat of Arms adopted in 2008

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