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riding the bull

UPDATE: The Egypt protests have exposed the hypocrisy of mealy-mouthed Western commentators

“If you allow this popular democratic movement to run on unchecked, you cannot predict what’s going to happen. But you can predict probably that after a short, sharp, massive clampdown at huge human cost, there will be a sullen stability.” ~ Professor David Cesarani, suggesting that a Tiananmen Square-style crackdown (ie: massacre), from a strictly pragmatic point of view, would be more desirable and predictable for business interests than dealing with the uncertainty of the Egyptians having a democracy. 

We guess Professor Cesarani is willing for the Egyptian people to pay the price so that businesspeople can enjoy stability?


Suleiman made some strange comments. He said there could be a "coup" unless demonstrators agree to enter negotiations.

He also warned of chaos if the situation continued, speaking of "the dark bats of the night emerging to terrorize the people." If dialogue is not successful, he said, the alternative is "that a coup happens, which would mean uncalculated and hasty steps, including lots of irrationalities."
Although it was not completely clear what the vice president intended in his "coup" comment, the protesters heard it as a veiled threat to impose martial law — which would be a dramatic escalation in the standoff.
Suleiman, a military man who was intelligence chief before being elevated to vice president amid the crisis, tried to explain the remark by saying:

"I mean a coup of the regime against itself, or a military coup or an absence of the system. Some force, whether its the army or police or the intelligence agency or the (opposition Muslim) Brotherhood or the youth themselves could carry out 'creative chaos' to end the regime and take power," he said.

Oh so he means that some force?, whether its the army or police or the intelligence agency or the MB or some of the youth themselves?, could behave like the phony sons-of-bitches on the payroll that they actually are?, to start some "creative chaos" to end the regime and take power? Did we read that right? He says it like it's a bad thing, but of course we don't think he thinks it's a bad thing, we think he was just hoping that once the spooks uncorked this Egyptian bottle that their people on the payroll would herd those protesters along nicely, OR, that all hell would break loose. Either way. Smallish protests that they could manage with their NED goons, or else total chaos and violence that they could squash with their military and police goons. Maybe they were not counting on very large, peaceful and persistent protests that are proving difficult to steer or else "put down"? Hot damn. The protesters refuse to make it easy to make the next move. Could be an Act of God.

Organizers of the mass demonstrations, now in their 16th day, sought to widen their uprising. They called for a new "protest of millions" for Friday similar to those that have drawn the largest crowds so far. But in a change of tactic, they want to spread the protests out around different parts of Cairo instead of only in downtown Tahrir Square where a permanent sit-in is now in its second week, said Khaled Abdel-Hamid, one of the youth organizers.
A previous "protest of millions" last week drew at least a quarter-million people to Tahrir — their biggest yet, along with crowds of tens of thousands in other cities. A Tahrir rally on Tuesday rivaled that one in size, fueled by a renewed enthusiasm after the release of Wael Ghonim, a Google marketing manager who helped spark the unprecedented protest movement.
Naturally, we have to be concerned about a Google connection. Here he is. Judge for yourself:

REPORTER: Do you think you're going to succeed?
GHONIM: We don't care. We're going to do whatever we've got to do.
via Crooks & Liars

We HOPE and SUSPECT these large but self-controlled crowds pose an unanticipated problem for the creeps trying to rule the world. We HOPE the Egyptian people will thoroughly vet anyone put forth as a possible leader.

Suleiman continues to show his true colors:

Suleiman, a close confidant of Mubarak, also reiterated his view that Egypt is not ready for democracy. "The culture of democracy is still far away," he told state and independent newspaper editors in the roundtable discussion Tuesday. His comments were a blunt, impatient warning for the youth organizers to enter talks and drop their insistence on Mubarak's ouster. He rejected any "end to the regime" including an immediate departure for Mubarak — who says he will serve out the rest of his term until September elections.

Discussions about moving Mubarak to Germany for health reasons may open the way for Suleiman to negotiate with the protesters.

The website of news magazine Der Spiegel on Monday cited unnamed sources at the Max Grundig clinic in the southern state of Baden-Württemberg have said the private luxury facility is the first on the list of potential destinations for the 82-year-old leader. The claim came in response to a weekend report in The New York Times that US representatives had secretly suggested Mubarak make a dignified exit on the pretext of taking medical leave in Germany, where he has been treated by doctors in the past.

The point of this manoeuvre would be to bring the opposition to the negotiating table with the Egyptian government. If Mubarak were not in Egypt, a government led by Vice President Omar Suleiman could negotiate with the Egyptian opposition movement without Mubarak formally losing his position.

Declaration: Egyptian Youth Protesting in Midan al-Tahrir

First Main Point: The Promises of the President and the Events of February 2
We have been protesting since January 25 and conducting a sit-in in Tahrir (Liberation) Square. We strongly condemn the brutal attack that was undertaken by the mercenaries of the national party against us at the center of our sit-in on Wednesday February 2 under the pretenses of a demonstration in support of President Mubarak and this aggression continues on Thursday February 3. We are saddened by the participation of some of Egypt’s youth with the government thugs and criminals whom the National Party is used to employing in elections. The regime unleashed them against us after the regime and its media spread many lies about our goals, which are in support of a change in the political regime, to guarantee to us and to all citizens, freedom, dignity of life and social justice – goals also shared by these young people. Thus, we would like to clarify the following:
First, we are a group of young people from Egypt – Muslims and Christians; the overwhelming majority of us do not belong to political parties nor have we been involved in political activities before. Our movement includes old people and children, peasants, laborers and professionals, students and workers and pensioners. Our movement cannot be characterized as driven or moved by a minority given the millions who responded to the call for bringing down the regime. They joined this call last Tuesday in Cairo and in the governorates, in an event in which not one single incident of violence was witnessed nor any attack on property or harassment of anyone by anyone.

Second, our movement is accused of being funded from outside, with support provided by the United States. It is also said that the movement has been instigated by Hamas, and that it is under the leadership and organization of the president of the National Society for Change, Mohammed Elbaradei. Finally, and not finally, it is said that the movement is directed by the Muslim Brotherhood. The listing of these multiple accusations in this way in and of itself shows how false they are. The protestors are all Egyptians. Their goals are patriotic, clear and specific. The protestors have neither foreign weapons nor equipment as the instigators claim. The broad response of the people to the movement reveals that the movement’s goals are the same goals of the Egyptian masses in general, and not the goals of particular faction or foreign entity.
Third, the regime and its media cast false blame upon us for the tensions and instability that you have seen in the streets of Egypt in the previous days and, thus, blame the young people who are demonstrating for the damages inflected upon our interests, the interests of our nation, and the security of us all. It is not the peaceful protestors who let the criminals out of prison to create a situation of thievery and looting in the streets of Egypt. It is not the protestors who imposed a curfew that starts at 3:00PM, stopping work at banks, bakeries and fuel stations. When the protestors organized their demonstrations of millions they came out in the best form, it was well organized, and the demonstrations ended peacefully. The protestors are not the ones who killed 300 people, some of them with live bullets. Nor did they injure more than a thousand people in the previous days.
Fourth, President Mubarak came out on Tuesday to announce that he would not run in the next presidential elections, and that he would amend articles in the constitution, and begin dialogue with the opposition. The official media attacked us when we refused his “concessions” and we decided to continue our movement. Our demand that Mubarak must leave immediately is not personal. It is based upon clear reasons including:
Promising not to run is not a new thing, Mubarak promised when he became a president in 1981 that he would not serve as president for more than two terms, but he stayed in power for more than 30 years. The speech did not put forth any guarantees that his son Gamal will not run for office. Gamal is still a member of the ruling party and can nominate himself in an election that does not proceed under judicial supervision since the speech did not mention amending article 88 of the constitution. Furthermore, the speech deemed our movement a conspiracy waged by forces that work against the interest of the country, as if agreeing to the demands of the people is a dishonor and disgrace. As for starting a dialogue with the opposition – how many dialogues did the regime claim it would start with the opposition in previous years, that ended with Mubarak’s State proceeding in the path of the narrow interests of the entities that control the state.
The events that happened on Wednesday validate our position. While the president was offering promises in his speech, the leaders of his regime were arranging with thugs to plot the brutal attack in Tahrir Square using machetes, knife, and fire bombs. They were accompanied by members of the ruling party who used fire arms against peaceful demonstrators who were surrounded in Tahrir Square. This attack resulted in the death of at least seven people and wounded hundreds of people, some of them with serious injuries, with the aim of ending our national popular movement and keeping the status quo.
Our movement is Egyptian – Our movement is legitimate – Our movement is ongoing
Young people from a sit-in in Tahrir Square
The protesters have some very strong points. It is absolutely TRUE that Mubarak has made many political promises that he broke and has played many games to stay in power while seeming to maintain a veneer of democracy. We worked on this book. It has all been documented.

The Egyptian people have their own VALID, LEGITIMATE REASONS for wanting to be rid of Mubarak, which they have accumulated over thirty years, despite the fact that he has done some good things during that time. These reasons exist independently from the geopolitical forces in play. Other people who want Mubarak out for their own power reasons, such as NATO/US/UK/Israel are piggybacking on the Egyptian peoples' legitimate grievances, not the other way around. And that is why they are having trouble controlling the outcome.

However, we think the youth are being naive about the outside forces. Are there spooks trying to manage the protests? We would say there's no doubt that spooks are involved, and that is not at all to denigrate the sincere protesters. It is simply a FACT OF LIFE that must be understood and dealt with. This is serious business to NATO/US/UK/Israel. They want leaders that they can control, and they have plenty of experience and think tanks and methods in how to manipulate people. Therefore of course they have people on the ground trying to infiltrate and control the opposition, just as they have done in all the other places. Egyptians who deny this do so at their own peril.

See Aangirfan: CIA and Muslim Brotherhood versus Mubarak 

And: Aangirfan: Mubarak opposed USA's 'Greater Middle East '

Seems to us the problem is not so much getting rid of Mubarak as getting all these people to ACCEPT SOMEONE ELSE that the spooks have in mind.

If the NED-sponsored and other "spontaneous" "leaders" on the payroll don't deliver the massive numbers of protesters safely into the arms of the MB or El Baradai, or whoever the elites pull out of their ass next, then they FAIL.

If they FAIL to control the protests, and it looks like that is exactly what they're doing, then the elites would have to negotiate with real people who want real reform. And they certainly don't want to do that.

So what are they going to do? They can't abort the mission now. The people refuse to go home. But they don't want to give the people what they want. We can almost hear them cussing as Suleiman talks about "some force" bringing this to a conclusion.

Riyahd intervenes. Back off Hosni Mubarak, Saudi King Abdullah warns Barack Obama

In a testy telephone call on January 29, King Abdullah told the US President not to humiliate Mr Mubarak and said the Egyptian leader should be allowed to stay on to oversee the transition towards democracy and then to leave with dignity, The Times of London reported yesterday.
King Abdullah threatened to step in with funding for Egypt if the US withdrew its $US1.5 billion ($1.47bn) a year aid program....The revelation of Saudi concerns sheds new light on America's apparent diplomatic paralysis and lays bare the biggest rift between the nations since the oil price shock of 1973, according to The Times. It said the tough line from Riyadh was driven by concern that Western governments were too eager to shove aside Mr Mubarak, without proper consideration of what should follow him.
Again, this seems to be the problem. Who replaces Mubarak? He can't be removed unless / until they can slide someone in there who can be fully controlled. And thus, something will have to be done, to change everything, to get the pressure off. Probably a military "solution." Force is what NATO/US/UK/Israel do when they can't finesse their psyops.

"Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit overnight that he believes the military will have to intervene if this situation becomes more chaotic - that's the word he was using: chaos. If chaos spreads, the military will have to move in. So, if that happens, there are men, women and children in this square; that could be very messy indeed."
Reportedly the Pentagon has been in constant contact with the Egyptian military, delivering advice.

And America's best agents in Cairo are reportedly US-trained Egyptian officers.

Many eyes are on Lt. Gen. Sami Anan, the Egyptian Army’s chief of staff, to see if he now feels pressure from the officer ranks or common soldiers to turn against Mr. Mubarak. While he received training in Russia and France, he has had regular contact with the Pentagon. Egypt and the US have had close military ties since the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty – but especially because the US provides $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt, or about a third of its military budget. In addition, hundreds of Pentagon officials operate in the country. But Egypt is one of many friendly but authoritarian-run countries that sends officers to the US for various types of education, usually at institutions such as the Army War College or the National Defense University. The officers come under a little-known program called International Military Education and Training (IMET).

...Little is known of the Pentagon’s efforts to reach US-trained Egyptian officers and advise them to show restraint in dealing with the protests. Mubarak, a former Air Force commander, may fear the Army. He reportedly has tried to hold down the number of officers trained in the US. And after the protests began last month, he quickly filled government posts with former military officers in hopes of retaining military loyalty.
The Egyptian armed forces has a strong desire to keep good relations with the US and Israel, and perhaps to prevent Islamic militants from gaining power. It seems committed to constitutional government, and probably opposed the apparent ambition of Mubarak to groom his son for succession. In coming days, the Army may be forced into a difficult choice: Support Mubarak, or the hundreds of thousands of civilians defying him in the streets.
Since the Islamic militants is a straw-man argument, this comes down to the Egyptian military wanting to stay tight with the US and Israel.

Moon Over Alabama has more on why this would be so:

The Egyptian military apparatus owns a lot of land, production assets and other economic valuables. It has immense business interests:

Paul Sullivan, a National Defense University professor who has spent years in Egypt, says it is huge, probably accounting for 10% to 15% of Egypt's $210 billion economy.
The generals are unlikely to give those assets up. A real democratic transition, which would allow a new civilian government to control or take over the military businesses, is not in the Generals interests. They'd likely rather shoot some civilians over that.
Therein of course might lay the danger of the "coup" Suleiman warned of. There may be some Majors and Colonels who would not want to be part of a violent military crackdown on their brothers and sisters. But the regime still has an alternative to a military crackdown that might incite a coup. It can reignite terror in the streets with the secret civil part of its rule, the Interior Ministry. After a few weeks of random mass night killings be snipers and "thugs" and the propagandizing the resulting fear, the soldier part of the regime could again be seen as savior, or simply as the less threatening alternative.
Suleiman alluded to that strategy:

He warned of chaos if the situation continued, speaking of "the dark bats of the night emerging to terrorise the people."

This is a perilous time.


malcontent said…
TPTB focus solely on herding the sheep while the Egyptian People focus on becoming free men and women who no longer need the dogs of war to keep them in line.

There is no country in the Middle East other than Israel that comes close to the proportion of educated minds as Egypt. This would seem to be the single biggest impediment to maintaining the status quo.

The professional class in Egypt is the next target for the power structure that takes the reins. The observational portion of this mission is certainly under way. Watching for the local leaders in this sea of faces and cataloging their movements for a coordinated attack seems all too logical.

Immovable objects meet irresistable forces once again like power versus knowledge with blood in the streets. I fear this is going to get much uglier very soon and unfortunately it is unavoidable. All anyone can do is look in their hearts to be sure they understand their contribution to peace and justice for all.
McJ said…
Nice post AP. I have just have a few minutes this morning.

FYI Al Jazeera is now reporting:

The Military Council minus Mubarak has made a national statement on the ongoing crisis. They are stepping in to "safeguard the country" and say the council will meet regularly.
Mubarak will address the nation tonight and there is anticipation he will announce he is leaving.
There are huge celebrations going on now among the protesters as "they sense victory".
McJ said…
Forgot to add this: :)
The military also said they stopped Mubarak from transferring power to Suleiman.

An interesting point to note is that I learned the other day that the Egyptian constitution also allows Mubarak to transfer power to the Speaker of the House which would then force an election in 60 days. However, I believe that election would happen under the current one party system.
A. Peasant said…
hmm, interesting. i read somewhere in the last couple of days that this would end with a military v military shootout.
McJ said…
That is interesting. As usual with these reports there are conflicting reports and lots and lots of speculation. I guess we are going to see. Got to go so ttyl.
McJ said…
The head of the NDP says he has resigned and that he thinks Mubarak will hand over power to the military. hmmmm

Ok so I really am going now.:)
A. Peasant said…
haha, ok catch up later...
Penny said…
All quite interesting.
The comment about the coup piqued my interest also.
It seemed so odd, since a coup is usually the military overthrow of the government.

Since Suleiman is the government it is an odd thing to say.

So, I am going to suggest this.

That the government is controlled externally. And, actually I have said it previously at my blog. I do not think the military is fully controlled by Egypt.

They have long been a part of NATO, though not officially.
So who controls the army?
You may be interested in this?

Keep US aid flowing to Egypt's Military

"As the crisis in Egypt unfolds, the Egyptian military emerges as the most important factor in determining its immediate future. Critical too are U.S. links with the Egyptian military Washington's primary source of influence over what will happen."

"Continuing support for the Egyptian military will be crucial for U.S. influence and for an evolution in Egypt that can meet American interests."

"One reason Egypt's military responded to the demonstrations so positively has been its long-standing ties to the U.S. military, stretching back three decades."

In other words the military, which did not attack or curtail the protesters is beholding to the US.
By telling the people what he did, he is in fact telling them, drop the protests and enter into meaningful dialogue, or the US will unleash the army on you.

Except he danced around the fact that it will be the US controlling the military coup.

So, this likely is a threat that Suleiman is under himself.

To get the people reigned in. Or the US will activate the army to do so.
Penny said…
Oops sorry that should be reined in.
Get the people reined in!

I really don't know what options the people have. If they stay out in the streets, they will be run down by the army.

If they go home, the government will still fall.
The US and Israel need Mubarek out!

If the people are being mislead by NED stooges, they will stay in the streets.

There has to be an alternative, and I wish I could think of something!

Your right AP, there are perilous times
A. Peasant said…
sounds about right Pen. although i don't think Suleiman is under threat himself. he was asked questions in his capacity and he answered them. bush often said technically honest things under pressure. like when he said (paraphrase) our enemies never stop thinking of ways to harm us, and neither do we... ? i think it's sort of like that.

the RAND corporation make me laugh. blah blah blah look at our correspondent with all his credentials. oh btw we are a dollar nonprofit institution "that helps improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis." perfectly harmless, see?

this was particularly funny:

"Fortuitously, the Egyptian chief of staff was in the Pentagon with two dozen high-ranking officers for annual staff talks as the protests began to mount."

fortuitously indeed! kind of like those other exercises that go live in the past? 9/11, 7/7...
Hei Hu Quan said…
From what I've been reading, I wager that Mubarak, Suleiman and co. were given an ultimatum by the hell triad (US/Israel/UK). He was ordered to either set his house to order or they'd engineer a coup and do it for him. I think the majority of people seriously underestimate just what's going transpiring and just how important it is. Around the world the masses are rising up and saying enough (except the US who are doing some sort of paralytic rage mime). This is causing no end of consternation and delay to the hellish machinations of Rothschild and their legion of cheerleaders and lackeys. Tunisia, Palestine, France, Greece, Iceland, Britain, Venezuela are inspirations and examples for those who have reached their limit with the constant abuse, depleting freedom, escalating plunder and prospects of having a shit life. None however are like Egypt and the Egyptian people have boldly stood up, demanding and accepting nothing less that their due, which is why they are such a threat to the self-assumed powers. A threat that must never be allowed to become victorious and one that must be made a violent international example of. Which is exactly why they need to be successful, their vanguard efforts may be the key to putting an end to this unyielding onslaught once and for all.

In the post, the Declaration by Egyptian Youth quoted "First, we are a group of young people from Egypt – Muslims and Christians; the overwhelming majority of us do not belong to political parties nor have we been involved in political activities before." The fact they have never participated in manipulated political parties has been their saving grace and key to the success of their movement and why those who play by the house rules fail persistently. It's all about buying time when the empire starts to fall, The US did it with Obama and now they want to pull the same stunt on the Egyptian freedom warriors. Using the exasperation of the people to "vote out" one scumbag only to install a smiling wolf in sheep's clothing.
Anonymous said…
Latest(MSM) headlines down here are quoted as.
"Oposition figure El Baradai urges Army to rescue Egypt"
"Egypt revolt set to flare as Mubarak won't quit"
"Egyptian protestors furious at Mubarak speech"
"obama says Mubarak power transfer not enough"
"egyptian newspapers quoted "we can't go on this way"

I did also leave a lengthy response to your question re what was the biggest lie i saw whist not being able to be on the net for the past 2 weeks, it's in the blog title heading "lets ask Alice" comments .
Thanks AP,
Anonymous said…
The reply i made was in "OUR PUB"
not let's ask alice...DUH.....
( this is what small children do to your head while you are trying to contibute ;)) A13
Anonymous said…
off-topic, but interesting.

I love the "Potential Proactive Tactics" part. Sounds like they've got a game plan.

Penny said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
Penny said…
Ap: should have clarified,

but then I see HHQ came along and clarified what I had meant. And he did it so darn good!

Pen "So, this likely is a threat that Suleiman is under himself."

HHQ:From what I've been reading, I wager that Mubarak, Suleiman and co. were given an ultimatum by the hell triad (US/Israel/UK). He was ordered to either set his house to order or they'd engineer a coup and do it for him.

Thanks HHQ, that was exactly what I meant. I should have chose my words better.

Not surprisingly today, the army said they are loyal!
Of course the media makes it out that they are loyal to Mubarek, as if?
A. Peasant said…
ok so the headlines say (see A13's comment):

"Oposition figure El Baradai urges Army to rescue Egypt"
"Egypt revolt set to flare as Mubarak won't quit"
"Egyptian protestors furious at Mubarak speech"
"obama says Mubarak power transfer not enough"
"egyptian newspapers quoted "we can't go on this way"

and then the army announces that it will stay loyal to Mubarak. i guess that means "no rescue" and tensions set to "flare" and Something Must Be Done.
A. Peasant said…
switters, that second slide is really a model of corruption.
chuckyman said…
It’s just been announced that Mubarak is stepping down. Now comes the time of greatest danger. May the angels watch over the people of Egypt.
A13 said…
Good Morning A.P.
Well, Mubarak has stepped down.
The media are in a extatic mood...
some headlines from down here

"Egypt army vows to uphold reforms"

"Israel says Egypt need time for change"

I'm Sure thier man El Baradai will somehow "win" the next elections...

Lets just hope it all stays peacefull for the people as they deserve as much.
Cheers A13
A. Peasant said…
and here comes the excessive drama:

"israelis in 'big trouble' with loss of their staunchest Arab ally"

"israel is feeling even more alone"


this is EXACTLY the drama predicted here:
Hei Hu Quan said…
No worries Penny, we are all working towards the same end and there are many angles to cover.

AP, I just checked out the video link as you recommended, The Aljazeera, Palestine and Israeli Deception and it was shockingly enlightening. Everyone should take a view, it will blow your minds at its frightening possibility and implication. It would do well to keep it in mind when analysing the current events in Egypt. If it's true, as Imran Hosein advances, then it might explain just why this Egyptian Revolution went off so easily. Brilliant find AP, well done.
A13 said…
Do you suggest, for sources, of sticking to the msm, because it's disectable and fairly predictable?
and, also what most people base their judgement on, or looking at alternative news and viewing it more unilaterally?
I'm not sure and this is the hard stuff to discern during these times.
Just a question to consider i guess.
aferrismoon said…
2 short posts concerning Ceserani at ON THE CONTRARY [ Michael Hoffman]

Cesarani does seem to imply that the 'West' benefits from undemocratic control while the MSM/Politicos parrots that Democracy is coming to Egypt.

The 'Google = Democracy' meme , considering their battle for 'democracy' in China.

Democracy for Egypt:

" Egypt is not ready for Democracy, we do not have the money for airport scanners, a Guantanamo Bay [ though perhaps Sharm Al Sheikh can be given over to this. The democratic right to have porn channels for children is also being crushed as well as vacuous pop-star worship. We have so far to go before we reach the glorious standards of the West'

A. Peasant said…
A13, i will reply over your place...

HHQ, Aan and Chucky pointed that video out to me. it is excellent if anyone hasn't watched it yet.

Ferris, indeed. Egypt is super vulnerable right now. this was the plan. this will justify the military role.