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what has changed?

"Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (C), flanked by his Defense Minister Field Marshall Abdel-Halim Abu Ghazala (L) and Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Ibrahim Orabi (R), visits the tomb of the Unknown Soldier in this April 24, 1986 file photo. Egypt's Vice President Omar Suleiman said on February 11, 2011 that Mubarak had bowed to pressure from the street and had resigned, handing power to the army, he said in a televised statement." Check out the many other fascinating file photos at National Post.

Before: Mubarak + Military

"In a brief announcement, Omar Suleiman said on Friday that Mubarak had "abandoned the presidency," handing over the power to the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces, which is headed by Defense Minister Gen. Mohammed Tantawi. ...The transition means that Egypt, which has been under a state of emergency for the past 30 years, will continue to be ruled by the military." 

After: Mubarak + Military

"Standing right: Representative of the Egyptian Chief of Defence: Major General Sami Diab talking to left Representative of Israel Chief of Defence: Major General Yisrael ZIV" NATO Photos, May 2005

One Big Happy Family.

Mubarak received lots of money from the US while he ruled Egypt. Presumably, he funneled lots of that money to his generals. Reportedly, Egyptian officers enjoy an extensive network of luxurious perks and comfortable retirements. But in the end, the generals could no longer support Mubarak, and he had to go. Loyalty notwithstanding. We guess they know where their bread is buttered. Mubarak was only the middleman.

NATO chief sure Egypt will remain 'force for stability'

BRUSSELS  - North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Friday he was optimistic that Egypt's power transition wouldn't destabilize Middle East security.

"I am confident Egypt will continue to be a force for stability and security," Rasmussen said after the Egyptian military took control following president Hosni Mubarak's decision to quit.

"I have consistently called for a speedy, orderly and peaceful transition to democracy, respecting the legitimate aspirations of the people of Egypt," the Dane added of a planned countdown to elections following 18 days of massed protests.

"Egypt is a valued partner in our Mediterranean dialogue and a pivotal country in the region," he underlined.

Some leaders have expressed concerns over the future of Egyptian relations with Israel, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel urging those who form an incoming government in Cairo to "keep the peace" and respect a key peace treaty with Israel.

So, Everything Is Under Control......? Nothing has changed. The military remains in power. The military generals work with their colleagues from other countries.

Is disappointment coming for the protesters? 

That would be the reasonable, albeit cynical conclusion. That has been the pattern so far.

However, there are always some wild cards.

For one thing, everyone watched this unfold. The Egyptian people have the sympathy of the world. They have behaved with self-control, and they are now working together to clean up the streets and try to make a new start. Did we all witness their perseverance? We did. But they have no guarantees of ANYTHING. Egypt is as vulnerable as a newborn baby right now.

Divide and conquer usually comes in to spoil the feelings of unity. Will Egyptians start to argue amongst themselves and get the blame game going if it comes to pass that nothing is actually changing? The media typically does a very good job stirring up trouble and pitting people against each other.

Also, there could be terrorism.

And there could be sectarian violence.

"The Coptic Church has been out of communion with the Orthodox and Roman Catholic Churches for many hundreds of years due to a linguistic misunderstanding.  Patriarch Shenouda III of the Coptic Church has openly supported the Mubarak dynasty with support of Gamil Mubarak as the next Prime Minister. Now that the Mubaraks seem to be losing their grip on power, will the Coptics be slaughtered in the streets and driven out of Egypt as the Iraqi Christians were?" 

Where would these problems come from? The same place they always come from. Terrorists on the payroll.

Al Qaeda linked to Coptic New Year's Massacre, 1/24/11

"The Palestinian Islamic Army, which has links to Al Qaeda, is behind the attack on the al-Qiddissin church in Alexandria," Mr Adly said in a speech to mark Police Day, carried live on state television. President Hosni Mubarak took to the stage to congratulate the police "for finding the perpetrators of the terrorist act in Alexandria."
In a swift response, the Palestinian Army of Islam denied any involvement in the deadly attack. "The Army of Islam has no relation, whether close or distant, to the attack on the Coptic church in Alexandria, Egypt," a spokesman for the group, who gave his name as Abu Muthanna, said. "The Mossad (Israeli intelligence) was responsible for the attack."

Mubarak correctly rejected the attempts to divide Egyptian society through terrorism.
Addressing senior officials and members of the police force, Mr Mubarak said the attack had tried to target Egypt's unity and firmly rejected foreign calls for the protection of the country's Christians as "interference." "The latest attack in Alexandria, represents a pitiful attempt to bring (terrorism) back to Egypt", this time in "an bid to stir division between the Copts and the Muslims."

Reuters: US eyes Egypt Islamists as extremist fears fester

The same congress-tools who have popped up in other narratives of interest here at Twelfth Bough: Representative Sue Myrick and Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Points made:

1. Mubarak's "toppling" marks a "new, uncertain era" that "promises to empower Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, long viewed with deep suspicion in the West."

2. Mubarak kept Al Qaeda weak in Egypt, so now congress people RAISE FEARS that "the rise of even moderate Islamists may give radical elements more room to operate." It's like a slippery-slope theory we guess.
3. James Clapper, DNI, played down fears about the MB, saying in effect: the MB is not so bad.

"But that is unlikely to sooth frayed nerves in the U.S. Congress, where anxiety is growing that Islamic extremists might turn a key U.S. ally into an opponent that would harbor militant groups and pose a threat to Israel. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Republican chairwoman of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, warned against allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to emerge as a powerful force. Representative Sue Myrick, also a Republican, called them a danger to post-Mubarak Egypt."

Myrick and Ros-Lehtinen, two ladies always ready to push the fucking panic button for Israel.
Facts be damned.

So nothing has changed quite yet. The only thing that has perhaps changed is the number of witnesses.

That doesn't seem like much of a change, but it could be much more important than we know.


A13 said…
Hi A.P
There does seem to be a few different "avenues" this whole situ in Egypt could take, Plan A, Plan B, Plan C and dito, on it goes.

like what you were saying in that post you did about reverse engineering certian outcomes.

with this comment though,

"The Army of Islam has no relation, whether close or distant, to the attack on the Coptic church in Alexandria, Egypt," a spokesman for the group, who gave his name as Abu Muthanna, said. "The Mossad (Israeli intelligence) was responsible for the attack."

Well, that was obvious from the outset, and they are so blatant about their "divide and conquer" modus op, that it's hard not to be too cynical when a signature job like this happens.

Also, Breaking is Yemen (which i've noticed is next on the agenda) is staring to internally flare up, link below.

There are many balls up in the air at the moment and we can't take our eyes of one of them.

Cheers A13.
veritas6464 said…
Hey AP,..This pantomime has achieved stage 1, now we move on to stage 2, fear mongering shills boogie boogie boogying non-existent threats to israhell, not to mention the measures that need to be taken to "democratize" Egypt and firm-up the economy, no, none of that matters; the big issues are non-existent threats to a bunch of disgusting child-molesting thieves and liars.

The fun has just started, Egypt is in the eye of a global storm; this calm won't last.

Anonymous said…
Obombinator hits his target! That guy with a monkey in his pocket and a sneer on his mug sure is a good shot. Let's see, another US ally down for the count, are we, could we, being destroyed from without AND within????? Too bad Mubarak let the Jackass give his voodoo spell to Cairo, HEY! Warning! Wherever this guy goes with his mau-mau monkey god he starts a fascist revolution. Watch out Berlin, der herr Hitler will be brought back from the tundra, with or without gonads, and be animated by the monkey god king-Tut, or is it Cleobama??? Hard to tell. BUT, it's not good for any of us!